Updates From Our MD - Sam Gompels

Cautiously optimistic

05/01/2021

Knowing what COVID is going to throw at us next is at best a game of guesses and often results in being totally wrong.  Right now, the biggest issue that we are facing is massively high sea freight rates.  In normal times, it costs about £2,000 to bring a container from China.  Today, that price is nearer £14,000 and it is likely to take twice as long as normal to arrive.  Supply chains were already stretched and this has stretched them further than we ever expected.  Prices of some bulky low value Far East products will inevitably have to rise.  As always, we will do our very best to keep the lid on those rises and bring them back down just as soon as we can re-source the products from the UK or get cheaper freight rates.

Fortunately, our stock buffers are enabling us to keep up with our same day dispatch (3pm cut-off) and we do not envisage any critical product outages over the next month or so.  97.6% of lines are as of today (5th Jan 2020) in stock and available for immediate delivery.  Despite best efforts, we have not been able to find options to navigate around a worldwide shortage of large (blue) and  extra large gloves.  Brexit remains an unknown quantity and we may be in the lull before the storm....or there is no storm and the European imports flow perfectly well.  Either way, we have buffer stocks and have signed up for every government scheme going to keep critical freight moving across the English Channel. 

Our online range of tools continues to grow and we are encouraging all our customers to place orders online,  raise queries online and find all of your invoices ready to download.  Our aim is to be the most efficient, most price competitive supplier on the planet and the more you can use the online services, the lower we can make our prices.  Direct Debit is a huge time saver for us and for you. The Direct Debit guarantee means that instant refunds are available should you not agree with the amount that we take.  Please help us to help you and pay by Direct Debit, it is a good quick win.  

Christmas 2020

03/12/2020

As 2020 draws to a close, we shall never forget the year that was Covid, the friends and family that we lost and the tough decisions that had to be taken. We are grateful to all our customers for their patience and understanding throughout. Our guiding light was to look after our regular customers first and foremost so that together we could look after the sick, the frail, the young, the vulnerable and continue our wonderful partnership.

Experiencing unlimited demand for very limited stock was difficult at the best of times. The rule book was useless and the only option was to follow hunches and try desperately not to get too much wrong. PPE passes pretty much saved the day and despite a few moans and groans, they gave us a flood control device that preserved the stock and let the warehouse cope with the massive volumes that were being shipped.

During 2021 we will be doing what we can to bring down prices. We have got most of them down to their pre Covid levels and we will not rest there despite the challenges. Freight rates have doubled recently and long delays in getting on a boat from the Far East have become the norm. On the plus side, the pound is a little stronger and many manufacturers are hungry for volume.

The purchasing team is working overtime to get the limited number of out of stock items back in for you. Supply challenges still poke their ugly head up in the strangest of places and demand is unpredictable. It adds up to a beautiful puzzle that we are striving to solve so that we can continue to supply you with what you need, when you need it. To cope with Brexit, Chinese New Year and who knows what else might come along, our stock levels have been doubled and we are pulling out all the stops to make this difficult time another success.

May we wish you a healthy, happy Christmas full of joy and laughter. Should you need anything then please give us a try and we will do our best to get it to you. Together we care for so many special people who really need us this Christmas. Let's heal the wounds of Covid and enjoy the new normals.

Updated* Situation and outlook for Healthcare supplies 

20/10/2020

Now that the government is supplying some of the PPE needs of Care homes and other social care providers, a little of the heat has gone out of the market. That means that orders placed before 2-3pm are nearly always dispatched for next day delivery. There are still many bumps in the supply chains, often in areas that you would least expect . Where we cannot bridge the gaps in supply with our much enlarged stock holding then we endeavour to get supplies from an alternative manufacturer. This invariably results in a stock code change which, although a nuisance does at least mean that we have some stock for you.

Market Outlook

• Nitrile gloves stocks are limited and shortages are forecast, prices are embarrassingly high
• Latex and Vinyl gloves, factory prices still rising but stock is arriving regularly
• Aprons, no problems envisaged
• Mask prices falling dramatically, we are working seriously hard to have the right quality, price and volumes available for you
• Alcohol gel and infection control/cleaning chemicals , no shortages envisaged now that production has geared up

Situation and outlook for Healthcare supplies 

24/09/2020

It was only last week that I said “The great guessing game has begun in earnest.  Will there be a second wave ? will there be shortages again ?  Do I need to stock up ?”

News of the second wave has once again dramatically increased the demand for PPE.  This time around, we are pleased to report that we have stock, we have supplies arriving regularly and we expect to be able to keep all our regular customers supplied.  In order to make sure that we do not fall behind in the warehouse, we took the decision to temporarily pause the ability for new customers to set up a new account.  We have also applied quantity limits on some product to stop resellers and traders from swiping all the stock.
 

Market Outlook

• Nitrile gloves stocks are limited and shortages are forecast, prices are embarrassingly high
• Latex and Vinyl gloves, factory prices still rising but stock is arriving regularly
• Aprons, no problems envisaged
• Mask prices falling dramatically, we are working seriously hard to have the right quality, price and volumes available for you
• Alcohol gel and infection control/cleaning chemicals , no shortages envisaged now that production has geared up

Planning For Winter

14/09/2020

The great guessing game has begun in earnest.  “Will there be a second wave ?” will there be shortages again ?  Do I need to stock up ?

There are few guarantees in life (except death and taxes) but we are confident that we are as well setup as we can be for most of what COVID and Brexit can throw at us.  Over the last few months, we have doubled the value of our stock holding and added a little more for good luck.

Our aim remains the same, to look after our regular customers and do whatever we can to keep you supplied at the best possible prices. 

Stock reserve is a brand new service that we have developed and tested during act I of the COVID-19 pandemic.  It is now ready to be rolled out more widely to our customers who would like to have stock held “With your name on it”.  Guaranteed to be yours, financed, stored and rotated.  Ready for you when everyone else is running out. Please send an email to keyaccounts@gompels.co.uk if you are interested.  The cost is 3% per month of the stock value held in reserve with a minimum of £10,000 stock held in the reserve.

Also coming soon is an entirely unique and massively researched environmental dashboard for our caring customers.  It will answer key questions….

• How much plastic do you purchase ?
• What is your Ecoindex score ?
• What can you do to reduce your impact on the environment ?

Keep an eye out for a special invitation to join us on an Environmental journey that will help to save the planet.  We are committed to helping you to making small, simple changes that will have a big impact.

Market outlook

• Nitrile gloves – Stocks are limited and shortages are forecast
• Latex and Vinyl gloves – Factory prices still rising but stock is still arriving regularly
• Aprons – no problems envisaged
• Masks – Prices falling dramatically, we are working seriously hard to have the right quality, price and volumes available for you.
• Alcohol gel and infection control/cleaning chemicals – No shortages envisaged now that production has geared up.

Situation and outlook for PPE supplies

06/08/2020

Gloves
Prices continue to rise as supply is not sufficient for worldwide demand and factories can take over a year to build. There is no end in sight for the relentless price rises. Every container that is due to arrive is costing more than the previous one. Most UK distributors have no or little stocks available for "free" sale.

Aprons
Stocks are beginning to be seen in the market. There are few barriers to production, but aprons should not be a problem long term. It will be almost impossible for recently established UK manufacturers to compete with Chinese suppliers when prices start dropping back to former levels.

Masks
Supply does not appear to be a problem. Everyone has geared up, the Chinese government is (at the moment) more relaxed about exports. We are bringing in a mix of containers and airfreight so that we can balance supply with demand. Lead times in China are down to 1-2 weeks in some cases. The requirement to wear face coverings in public along with care homes opening to the public have possibly stoked demand.

Visors
Supply and demand are more stable with plenty of manufacturers servicing the market. We envisage no supply issues and prices should continue falling. Visors are now widely available, and we assume not being widely used in Social care settings or supplied for free.

Alcohol Gel
Prices are dropping nicely, and alcohol gel is widely available in most formats. Sales volumes are very high.

What happens later in the year?

Gloves - UK stocks are going to remain very low because it is too expensive to "stock up" when prices are 4-5 times the normal levels. That means that any shortage in supply or increases in demand are likely to result in unmet demand or the need to rely on Government supply.

Masks - Whilst they are now much cheaper to buy, they are still many multiples of the "usual" cost and therefore like gloves it is too dangerous to stock up. Given the number of new entrants into the market and low cost of entry it is not anticipated that prices will rise to their former levels should there be a second spike.

VAT relief on PPE - This is due to stop at the end of October. That may well create a rush to purchase unless there is an extension on the current VAT relief.

Keeping you fully supplied

24/07/2020

Keeping you fully supplied is our first priority over the coming months. Our second priority is getting prices back down to pre crisis levels. On both fronts, we are making good progress but there is further to go and many challenges to overcome. Suppliers are still not able to give us all that we order and prices are still high especially where demand far exceeds supply (gloves).

Most products no longer need the PPE+ pass. We are keeping going with the system for now because if there is another surge in demand for a particular product it gives us an effective way of keeping our existing loyal customers supplied. We have many instances of people trying to buy vast quantities of our stocks for selling on. The pass system limits this and keeps the stock available for you.

Service levels are pretty much back to normal with next day delivery for orders placed before 3pm or later and emails being answered in a couple of hours during the working day. Our carrier partners are also in much better shape and generally delivering on a next working day basis.

Thank you for continuing to use Gompels. We sincerely hope that we have helped you through the crisis thus far and can continue to do so. If you have a few minutes, the team loves to have any feedback and comments. It is all read and shared around. Any posts on social media particularly with a link to Gompels.co.uk also help massively to spread the word and keep our costs low.

What goes up will come down!

15/06/2020

Stock forecast for June 2020

26/05/2020

Keeping you well supplied with the stock that you require is our primary goal.  Despite enormous efforts and millions of pounds in up-front payments to suppliers to secure stock, we have not quite managed on all fronts.  The demand has been off the scale and what would have been years of stock in normal times can sell in days.  On the whole, most products or a good alternative have been available most of the time.

Gloves
Whilst Vinyl and latex availability will be fine for those on our PPE+ passes, Nitrile will continue to be unavailable or priced at levels where social care do not want to order (£10-12 per 100)  Prices will continue to rise for all gloves as world demand still massively outstrips supply.

Aprons
Initial shortages will be fully covered by the middle of June.  Demand is expected to be high.  Prices will probably reach their peak by mid June.

Masks
Vast quantities are now arriving by container on a regular basis.  Price declines and increased availability will continue through June.

Alcohol
Wholesale prices of bulk alcohol are decreasing but there is a lack of pumps and bottles.  Suppliers of cartridge systems (Deb and Gojo/Purell) are still unable to service demand.  Stock should be more widely available as the month progresses.

Disinfectants and soaps
As for June, stock should generally be available but with some restrictions to prevent stockpiling whilst supplies are intermittent.

Infection control wipes
The material used in these products has cross over with face masks.  There is also a problem with the supply of tubs.   For June, it will probably be necessary to use a trigger spray and a cleaning cloth to disinfect surfaces.

In general
Supply chains are unreliable and subject to cancellations/delays at any point up to delivery.  Even the most reliable suppliers are having problems.  It is impossible to know what true demand is so even if we could order unlimited quantities there is no guarantee that it will sell.   When you have to pay up front and place more orders before you have sold the first order, the risks are high and continuity of supply uncertain.

Customer demand
The steady care home orders are being met by the “back to work” enquiries for masks and alcohol.  Gloves and PPE in general is also in high demand from chiropodists, physios, dentists and other healthcare sectors.

Why price rises can be a good thing

04/05/2020

There is a stark choice that we are regularly facing with our manufacturers.  Either we pay a higher price or we get no stock.  To be fair to our suppliers, their costs are going up massively too

• the price of alcohol hand gel has risen from £800 per tonne to £4000+ per tonne …. if you can actually get hold of it
• pumps for hand soaps are being flown in by air from China.  It costs about £6000 to air freight 1 pallet of stock!
• The production capacity is limited and the demand is unlimited.  A glove factory takes a year to build and is ¼ km long!

Relationships are key to getting hold of stock more than ever before.  Fortunately, we have worked hard to build those relationships over many years.  We have drunk the rice wine and eaten the chicken feet.  Visiting suppliers on a regular basis is one of the most important things that we do and it is paying handsome dividends now.

We are doing our best to look after our loyal existing customers because we will not have a business to keep us fed and watered when COVID-19 is over if we do not.

When we put our prices up, it hurts our customers and we feel your pain.  We have also had to pay more!  However, a price rise does mean that we have managed to secure some stock.  And that is the horrible stark choice in this crisis.  Do you want stock or not?

Where do we go from here?

01/05/2020

The invitation to order system gave us a chance to breathe and refine the ways in which we cope with unlimited demand for very limited stocks.  We are not enjoying playing God as we decide who gets stock and who does not, but decisions have to be made.   As of week commencing 19th April week we have moved to a PPE+ pass system that gives us the ability to allow our existing recent care customers the chance to order a limited amount of PPE stock lines + other short supply products.  By controlling the frequency and value of the passes, we can match the demand to the stock that is available.

What’s more, this PPE+ pass means that any, new or existing customers can purchase without restrictions products like bins, paints and nappies.

When we are confident about the long-term availability of a product, we can remove the PPE+ flag with its associated restrictions to allow new and existing (Care and non-Care) customers to purchase the product.

The stock situation is changing all the time. At the moment, we have a good supply of face masks and are experimenting with letting all customers purchase them.   That lets us gauge the demand and inform our future ordering.  Enough stocks will be held back for Care customers so we can support them in their invaluable role as they look after our grandparents, sick relatives and frail friends.

We feel terrible about some of the prices that we are having to charge our loyal customers.  In normal times it would be outrageous and wrong.  There is a stark choice that we have had to make to secure stock.  Either we pay the new price or we have no stock to sell on to you.  Ultimately, we see ourselves as your buying department.  Where possible we make sure that we have sufficient stock and leave it to you to decide if you want to pay the price.  Our prices will go up and down with the prices that we have to pay to secure your stock.

Every day we are sending out similar volumes of stock to what we would supply in a normal non Covid-19 week.  That has been broadly sufficient to keep our recent regular care customers going with minimal “Out of stocks” .  There have been specific challenges around face masks, alcohol gel, infection control wipes and Chlorine that we have not always been able to bridge.  Part of the reason for this is that our UK suppliers for gel and wipes were told to cancel our production slots (which had been pre booked well in advance) and produce for the NHS.  Despite being one of the 7 Public Health England appointed emergency suppliers to the Social care sector, we could not get hold of those products. 

When the demand for Chlorine based products goes up 4 fold and the lead time from suppliers extends overnight from 2 weeks to 8 weeks, even our normally large stock holding cannot bridge the gap.  We would have needed nearly a year's worth of stock in store to keep you supplied.  Sadly, we only had 15 weeks of stock which sold in under 4 weeks.

Going forward, there are definite challenges on most PPE related lines.  We have reasonably good visibility until July 2020.  The buying team is doing an amazing job of trying to push that out to August and beyond.  Because we are in this for the long term and appreciate the priceless work that our customers are doing, we are doing everything that we can to make sure we keep care and key workers supplied week in week out.  It will certainly not be everything at all times that you need, but it will be the vast majority.

The big unknown in all of this is working out what happens next and how long will it last.  We have no idea.  We will proceed with what feels like a healthy mix of caution and bold moves.  Only time will tell us if we have the right mix.

Last week there were many accusations bouncing around on Twitter, the press and Nicola Sturgeon that we had been told to only supply England with PPE.   This related to of 3 specific products from the England pandemic flu stocks that Public Health England had asked us to supply to Care homes in England only; because Scotland and Wales had been allocated their own part of the UK’s stockpile.  Day in, day out, we continue to supply customers in Scotland, Wales and England with Gompels PPE products.  No restrictions, no government advice to the contrary, just perfectly fair to all our existing recent customers.